Oresund Bridge Project Part 1
TCO A: What process would you use for identifying project risks for a second Oresund Bridge project? What risks would you raise for each alternative? Taking into consideration that this is the 2nd attempt at the project, I would begin by creating a checklist based off historical information from the risk knowledge base in the first project as well as other bridge projects. I would then use brainstorming or even interviewing others and perform a SWOT analysis. I would then classify the risks to reduce any redundancy. I would begin to create a risk register for the identified risks.
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This register would allow me to see the decision points/events that exist, rank the risks and begin to analyze develop alternatives. The alternatives and any secondary risks involved will also be added to the risk register, which is something that will be revisited many times through out the project life cycle. What process would you use for categorizing project risks for a second Oresund Bridge project? How would you actually categorize them? I would do qualitative risk analysis to assess the priority of the risks and the likelihood of occurrence and then place these into categories depending on the risks.
I would create a matrix using the analysis that shows the probability and the impact of each risk and how significant it will be to the project. In regards to categorizing the risks, I approach would be to start looking at the last project as a baseline for the categories. However, depending on the risks identified I may use project phases or break it down further into the triple constraint categories of scope risks, resource risks and schedule risks. The main goal is to see what has the highest impacting risks are and use that to guide the categories chosen.
What process would you use for ranking project risks for a second Oresund Bridge project? How would you actually rank them? I would use a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches like Expected Monetary Value (using NPV cash flow results), payoff tables, and decision trees. Qualitative approaches are useful when dealing with recognized/known risks therefore I would use this for risks identified with high probabilities of occurring and also later in the project when the risk plan is revisited. Since quantitative techniques are great when dealing with a lot of uncertainty I would use these techniques earlier in the project.
The way I would actually rank them would be by creating a matrix where I would identify the likelihood of a specific risk occurring and then define the impact of high, medium and low and linking it to the project objective that it affects (Cost/time/scope/quality). Based on where the projects begin to land on the matrix will determine the action taken/response plan. TCO C: How would you identify the key decision paths and options that can be anticipated in the project? What are these key decision paths and options in your opinion? There are many ways to identify key decision paths such as SWOT, decision trees and EV models.
I would use SWOT to help identify the decision events and I would also use a decision tree to help finalize the decisions as it uses EV and is great at easily including the alternatives (good & bad). In my opinion some of the decision paths would include decisions on contractors, decisions on materials, and decisions on designing of the bridge just to name a few. How might you use a decision tree analysis to evaluate the alternatives? What numbers would you use in this analysis? First you identify the decision to be made and then identify the risk/uncertainty associated with the risk.
The risk/uncertain would be the chance node. For the alternatives you need to have both probability of each outcome and the expected $ amount that will be seen if that outcome is occurs. The probabilities to the alternatives must equal 100%. You then perform the expected value calculation to find out which is the best decision. How might the techniques we have learned so far have helped the first Oresund Bridge project? Why? Risk Management should be an integrated part of the business which the Project Management team surely demonstrated by holding Risk Management to the highest regard from inception to closing.
It was clearly a part of every decision made in the project. We learned that risk management should be a ongoing process that is revisited throughout the project and the team followed that protocol to the “T” an example of this at the beginning when the focus was on technical and cost optimization the risks were revisited and focus shifted to schedule along with the risk management processes that had already been established. We see the use of the contingency plans were geared at avoiding or mitigating any identified risks yet supported the project’s main objectives.
In addition they were revisited in order to ensure the project stayed on schedule. TCOs B & D: What risks would you add to a risk matrix for this project to build a second Oresund Bridge? The risks that I would include in the risk matrix would be environmental preservation/pollution, equipment damage, material corrosion and disruptive working weather conditions. For the risk you named above, how would you categorize that risk? Please include risk impacts, risk probabilities, risk severity, and risk response categories.
Risk| Impacts| Prob-ability| Severity| Category| Environmental preservation/pollution| L| 30%| Construction can cause pollution, which will affect wildlife and environment as a whole. | Environmental/External Risks | Equipment damage| H| 50%| Costs of replacing equipment and delaying the project if weather becomes an issue. | Schedule Risks| Material corrosion| H| 50%| If the right material is not selected then corrosion may occur due to time/weather. Material would need to be replaced which could delay the project or causes double the work to be done. Schedule Risks| Disruptive Weather conditions| H| 60%| This may cause resource issues as health problems may arise or workers can’t finish work due to weather. May cause delay in schedule or a high resource turnover. | Resource Risks| What types of opportunities might you see for this second bridge project? On a project level the 2nd bridge project has the advantage of using the original project plans, risks and assessments created and continue to improve in the areas needed, which will help tremendously in the planning and executing of the plan.
There is a major schedule advantage in that many of the preservation or contingency plans have been created and can be reused. In regards to general opportunities the second bridge can bring an increasing revenue stream for both Copenhagen and Malmo as people from other parts each country traveling may find the 2nd bridge offers a more convenient location (closer to home possibly). Also, since this bridge will also have additional railroads available, there may also be an increase importing and exporting that can only lead to an improvement in economy.